MARKET COMMENTARY
In November, 3M LME copper traded in a range of $10,557.5 to $11,210.5. Prices began the month under pressure as weaker-than-expected factory and trade data from China raised concerns about global growth. Later on, the market found support from several drivers: FOMC minutes and comments from Fed officials revealed differing views within the Committee, while stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls added to policy uncertainty. Additional momentum came from reports that Nvidia may resume chip sales to China, optimism regarding the reopening of the U.S. government, and a pullback in the U.S. dollar.
Amid these developments, copper rallied to a record high of $11,210.5 on the final trading day of November and ended the month up 2.61% at $11,175.5. Persistent concerns over reduced supply from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine this year and next also continued to underpin the market, playing a key role in driving prices to new all-time highs.
Copper prices declined in the first week of November after disappointing Chinese factory data renewed growth concerns, while profit-taking from elevated levels added further pressure. However, a weakening U.S. dollar later in the week helped limit losses. Copper ended the week 1.80% lower at $10,695.
During the second week, optimism surrounding the reopening of the U.S. government and expectations for stronger demand ahead of Chinese economic data pushed copper up to $11,018. Yet profit-taking near the $11,000 threshold, combined with uncertainty around U.S. data, the Fed’s interest-rate outlook, and China’s weak economic readings, weighed on sentiment. Despite volatility, copper finished the week 1.41% higher at $10,846.
Copper retreated from early-week highs of $10,851 in the third week, pressured by concerns in the technology sector and a broader risk-off shift across financial markets as hopes for a near-term Fed rate cut faded. Throughout the week, sentiment was driven by China’s weak demand outlook, a stronger U.S. dollar, and September labor data from the U.S., prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s December policy decision. The metal ended the week 0.63% lower at $10,778.
In the final week of November, copper initially traded under pressure as mixed commentary from Federal Reserve officials created uncertainty surrounding a potential December rate cut. However, expectations shifted rapidly after weaker U.S. economic data increased the likelihood of a rate reduction and triggered outflows from U.S. equities, lending renewed support to industrial metals. Copper surged to a record high of $11,210.5, ending the week 3.69% higher and closing the month with a 2.61% gain at $11,175.5.
