Bulletins
MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper traded between $8914.5 and $9684.5 in February. 3M LME copper fell to $8914.5 in China on Thursday, February 6, 2025, as Trump’s 10% tariff on imports from major metals consumer China increased trade war concerns and created uncertainty in the markets.Copper prices rose to $9684.5, the highest level since November 8, 2024, and closed February at a 3.28% premium to $9361, supported by a media report that Chinese authorities are exploring plans to help major real estate firm Vanke close its financing gap and the expectation that US President Donald Trump’s plans for bilateral global tariffs will not come into effect before April.
Copper prices fell to $8914.5 at the beginning of the first week of February as Trump’s 10% tariff on imports from China increased trade war concerns and created uncertainty in the markets.3M LME copper extended gains throughout the week, rising to $9507, and closing the week at $9440, up 4.15% on news of additional tariffs on the US by China amid the tariff dispute with the US and ongoing concerns about demand in the world’s second-largest economy, and focus on whether China will announce more stimulus measures to boost its economy.
3M LME Copper prices rose to $9684.5, the highest since November 8, in the second week of February, supported by a media report that Chinese authorities are exploring plans to help major real estate company Vanke close its financing gap and the expectation that US President Donald Trump’s plans for bilateral global tariffs will not come into effect until April. Copper spreads moved sharply after news that the US will not implement tariffs on China until April, sending the market, which has been in contango for 19 months, into backwardation on February 14, 2025. LME copper ended the week up 0.26% at $9465. The cash settlement price on Friday, February 14, 2025, was announced as $9812. The cash settlement price for 3M LME copper on the same day was announced as $9665.
Copper prices fell to $9361 in the third week of February after Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on autos and semiconductor chips raised concerns about demand for the metal. But they rose to $9575, supported by Trump's signaling he was close to reaching a new trade deal with top consumer China, and ended the week up 0.53% at $9515.5.
3M LME copper traded between $9324 and $9555 in the last week of February. Copper prices fell to $9324 after Trump ordered an investigation into possible new tariffs on copper imports aimed at boosting U.S. copper production. The week ended down 1.62% at $9361, under pressure due to uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans and a stronger dollar.
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3M LME copper traded between $8766 and $9355.5 in January. 3M LME copper fell to $8766 on Thursday, January 2, 2025, as demand weakened after the manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 in December, below expectations of 50.3, according to data released in early January in China, and the data showed that the manufacturing sector in China grew for the third consecutive month in December, but the pace of growth slowed. Copper prices, which rose to $9355.5 on Friday, January 24, 2025, capped gains as investors sought clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and policy plans, closing January at a 3.22% gained to $9064.
Copper prices fell in the first week of January as investor activity weakened due to the Christmas holidays. They fell after factory activity data from China missed expectations. 3M LME Copper recovered some of its losses towards the end of the week on expectations that China will pursue more proactive policies to stimulate growth, but ended the week lower. 3M LME copper ended the first week of January down 0.98% at $8,893.5.
3M LME copper traded between $8851 and $9145 in the second week of January. It rose to $9145 after news that US President-elect Donald Trump was considering tariffs that would only be applied to critical imports. Copper, which gave back some of its gains after the US employment data on Friday, closed the second week of January with a 2.02% gain at $9073.5.
Copper prices, although the range was narrow and traded between $9063.5 and $9290 in the third week of January due to expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US and uncertainty over possible tariffs by US President-elect Donald Trump, it rose to $9290 after strong data from China. 3M LME copper ended the week up 1.19% at $9181.5.
It fell to $9142 as Trump's policy plans were unclear in the fourth week of January. 3M LME copper traded between $9142 and $9355.5 in the week. However, it gained support from the weakening dollar and rose to $9355.5, capping gains as President Trump sought clarity on tariffs and policy plans, before closing at $9269, up 0.95%.
Copper prices traded between $8957 and $9267 in the last week of January. Copper prices rose to $9267, supported by purchases at low levels, but fell to $8957 due to weak demand from China and news that Trump will impose tariffs on aluminum and copper, which the US needs to produce military hardware, and closed the week with a 2.21% loss at $9064.
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In December, 3M LME copper traded between $8757 and $9314. It rose to $9314 on Wednesday, December 11, 2024, on expectations that China would ease its monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. Copper prices have been on a downward trend throughout December as concerns about the US and Chinese economies stemmed from the new policies to be pursued by Donald Trump, who was elected US President in November. After the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.1 in December, below expectations of 50.3, LME copper fell to $8757 on the last day of the month on concerns that copper demand would decrease, and closed December with a 2.59% loss at $8781.5.
Copper prices rose in early December due to signs of increased optimism following the positive PMI data from China, but fell to $8904 as the strengthening US dollar and uncertainty about possible US tariffs affected the market. Copper prices rose to $9178.5 as investors awaited further signs of stimulus measures from leading consumer China, and closed the first week of December with a 0.86% gain at $9092.5.
3M LME copper tested the highest level since November 12 at $9,314, supported by major consumer China's announcement that it will ease monetary policy and adopt a proactive fiscal policy to support growth in 2025. The second week of December ended down 0.40% at $9,056.5, under pressure from uncertainty about the size of the economic stimulus promised at China's key policy meeting and expectations of oversupply in the global copper market in 2025.
Copper prices tested the lowest level since August 12 at $8859.5, under pressure from the dollar reaching a nearly two-year peak after the Fed announced it would cut interest rates at a slower pace in 2025. Although supported by positive economic indicators from the US as the week ended, it finished the third week of December down 1.24% at $8944.
Copper prices started the fourth week of December with losses as pre-Christmas volumes remained low and the dollar strengthened, but were supported by hopes of additional fiscal stimulus in China, the largest consumer. The London Metal Exchange remained closed for the Christmas holiday on 25-26/12. 3M LME Copper prices moved in narrow ranges as a strong dollar limited gains and investors avoided trading during the Christmas period, but found support from tight copper supplies and ended the week up 0.42% at $8981.5.
3M LME copper began the last week of December with losses as trading volumes were low due to the January 1 New Year holiday and ahead of economic data from China, the world's largest consumer of the commodity. Copper prices ended December down 2.59% at $8781.5.
3M LME copper traded between $8,127 and $11,104.5 in 2024. Demand slowing ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday weighed on the price. LME copper extended losses on Friday, February 9, 2024, falling to $8,127, despite reports that China is supporting its economy with financial measures. Copper prices began to rise after Russian metals were restricted on March 13 and later. The meeting in Beijing came after 19 Chinese smelters were hit by unexpected copper concentrate supply shortages that were affecting smelters’ profit margins. Antaike said copper companies agreed to accelerate the purchase and use of domestic scrap copper to increase raw material supply. This supply shortage has added to the gains in copper prices. In addition, the Central Bank of China has provided additional financing of $138 billion to support construction companies and the real estate sector, which have been in crisis since 2021, while easing the conditions for obtaining housing loans, and with the support of local governments' statements that they will purchase houses and good Chinese industrial data, it tested its all-time high of $11104.5 on Monday, May 20, 2024, and completed 2024 with a 2.56% gain at $8781.5.
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3M LME copper traded between $8867-$9782 in November. Copper prices tested their lowest level since 12.08.2024 at $8867 on November 14, under pressure from demand concerns due to possible tariffs from the US and the lack of aggressive incentives from China. After the losses, copper prices recovered some of their losses and rose to $9782, with the effect of the halt in the rise in the US dollar and the effect of the purchases coming from low levels, and closed November with a 5.57% loss at $9015.
Copper prices rose to $9782 at the beginning of the first week of November, supported by investors waiting for more stimulus statements from major consumer China, the US presidential election and a weaker dollar, but fell to $9302 due to pressure from the rising dollar after Donald Trump won the US presidency, as well as concerns about Trump’s stance on trade with China. Copper prices, which recovered some of their losses due to buying at lower levels, finished the week down 1.11% at $9433.
3M LME copper tested its lowest level since 12.08.2024 at $8867 and finished the second week of November down 4.90% at $8971, after the dollar strengthened amid growing concerns about future US trade policies under President-elect Donald Trump and stimulus measures announced in major consumer China fell short of expectations.
Copper prices rebounded early in the third week of November as the dollar weakened, but limited gains amid uncertainty over possible U.S. tariffs and China's stimulus measures. Later in the week, they gave back their gains under pressure from a stronger dollar and risk-averse sentiment due to the escalating conflict in the Ukraine-Russia war, and ended the week up 0.02% at $8972.5.
3M LME copper fell to $8950 as concerns about possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods weighed on metal consumption. Copper prices rose to $9092.5, supported by losses in the dollar, and closed the last week of November at $9015, up 0.47%.
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3M LME copper traded between $9435.5 and $10120 in October. Copper prices tested the highest level since June 7 at $10158 on October 3, due to rising demand expectations following the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the announcement of stimulus measures by leading metals consumer China. Copper prices, which fell in the middle of the month after rising at the beginning of the month, fell to $9435.5 on October 17 due to uncertainty about the economic recovery of the largest consumer after the stimulus plans announced in China did not meet expectations and the pressure of the strengthening US dollar, and closed October with a 3.22% loss at $9547.
In the first week of October, copper prices tested the highest level since June 7 at $10,158, due to rising demand expectations following escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a series of stimulus measures by leading metal consumer China. They gave back their gains and finished the week at $9,956, down 0.18%, due to low trading volume as markets in China remained closed for a one-week public holiday, as well as the impact of profit taking from high levels.
3M LME copper remained under pressure early in the second week of October due to a stronger dollar, but limited losses on optimism that demand in the country will pick up ahead of a briefing on China’s policies to support economic growth. LME copper, which limited losses on hopes that China will announce a fiscal stimulus package to boost demand for the metal, ended the week down 1.54% at $9803, as recent price gains weighed on physical demand.
Copper prices came under pressure early in the third week of October on a stronger dollar, but limited losses on optimism that demand in top consumer China will pick up ahead of a briefing on the country’s policies to support economic growth. LME copper, which limited losses on hopes that China will announce a fiscal stimulus package to boost demand for the metal, ended the week down 1.54% at $9803 as a recent rally weighed on physical demand.
3M LME copper rose to $9758 at the start of the fourth week of October on expectations that interest rate cuts in China would ease property woes and strengthen copper demand. However, it gave back its gains and finished the week down 0.61% at $9563.5, under pressure from a rising dollar after Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election revived.
3M LME copper fell to $9488 in the last week of October as expectations of a Trump presidential election grew. But it recouped some of its losses and ended the week down 0.26% at $9539 after a report from leading metals consumer China revived hopes it would announce a major fiscal stimulus package.
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3M LME copper traded in September between $8,890-$10,158. Recent economic data, especially the manufacturing PMI released in China, indicated that the economy was still weak. Investors expected the Chinese government to take new steps to support the economy. It fell to $8,890 on Wednesday, September 4, 2024, under pressure from the steps to support the economy that did not come after the PMI data was released. Towards the end of the month, it tested the highest level since June 7 at $10,158, as demand expectations increased following a series of incentive measures from leading metal consumer China, and completed September with a 6.63% gain at $9,865.
Copper prices tested the lowest level since August 12 at $8,890 on Wednesday, September 4, 2024, due to the impact of weak production data from China, the strong dollar and demand concerns. LME copper recovered some of its losses ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data due to the effect of the upcoming US elections and the cautious attitude around possible economic policies that could affect demand for commodities, but finished the 36th week down 3.22% at $8954.
3M LME copper traded between $8,941 and $9,327 for a 37th week. It rose ahead of US inflation figures due on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. It finished the week at $9,257, up 3.38% on Friday following US consumer inflation data, as stimulus hopes rose in leading metals consumer China following efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping to help the country meet its annual economic targets.
Following the Fed’s long awaited rate cut, LME copper rose to a two month high at $9,599.5. All LME metals were positive for the 38th week. While a renewed rally in the dollar limited copper’s gains, optimism about more stimulus from China kept copper above $9,450.
Copper prices traded between $9,381.5-$10,095 for the 39th week. Copper prices rose to $10,095 with the support of China's largest financial support program since the pandemic and the decline in the dollar, and finished the week with a 5.14% gain at $9,973.5. 3M LME copper tested the highest level since June 7 at $10,158 on the last day of September, then ended the month at $9865 due to profit taking.
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3M LME copper traded between $8714 and $9453 in August. On 05.08.2024, it tested $8714, its lowest level since March 13, as worsening demand outlooks in the world’s two largest economies, China and the U.S., led to a sell off of the metal used in energy and construction. It was supported at $9453, its highest level in nearly six weeks, on expectations that a possible U.S. interest rate cut in September would provide support for copper prices. 3M LME copper ended August with a 0.12% gain at $9251.5.
3M LME copper suffered losses at the start of its 32nd week as worsening demand outlook in China and the US, the world's two largest economies, led to selling of the metal used in energy and construction. Supported by rising copper consumption in China and expectations of larger interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year, LME copper could not recoup its losses at the beginning of the week and finished the week down 2.82% at $8831.
Copper prices were supported by easing concerns about China’s economy at the start of a 33rd week. However, they fell on 13.08.2024 as a larger than expected drop in Chinese credits soured confidence. However, they limited losses as U.S. data boosted interest rate cut hopes. LME copper, which came under pressure after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations on 14.08.2024, was supported by potential supply risks related to the strike at BHP’s Escondida mine. It rose to $9,184.5 on 16.08.2024. Copper prices ended the week up 3.92% at $9,177.5, encouraged by U.S. data that eased concerns about mineral supply and fears of an impending recession in the world’s largest economy.
3M LME copper, although it started the 34th week with a gain, fell to $9120 under pressure as investors ended their short covering rally and demand concerns in major consumer China continued. It closed the week with a 1.31% gain at $9298, as Powell's statements and good data from the US indicated that recession concerns in the US were easing.
3M LME copper started the week on a gain, testing $9453 on optimism that a possible September interest rate cut in the US, which remained closed for a bank holiday at the beginning of the 34th week, could help boost demand for the red metal. It fell to $9177 on 29.08.2024 as weak economic data and demand concerns in major economies weighed on prices. LME copper ended the week down 0.50% at $9251.5.
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3M LME copper traded in the $8,900-$10,000 range in July. The dollar, which weakened ahead of the China meeting and Powell's speech from July 15-18, tested $10,000 on 05.07.2024 on the back of rising U.S. rate cut hopes, stimulus measures and increased physical demand in China, the largest consumer. It extended its losses and tested $8,900 on 25.07.2024, its lowest level since March 28. 3M LME copper ended July down 3.61% at $9,586.
3M LME copper tested the $10,000 level in the first week of July, supported by the weaker dollar, rising interest rate cut hopes in the US, stimulus measures and the higher than expected non-farm payrolls announced in the US on 05.07.2024, following the increase in physical demand in the largest consumer China. Copper prices finished the week with a 4.01% gain at $9,970.
LME copper, which started the second week of July at $10,000, faced losses after the disappointing inflation announcement in China. It finished the week at $9,877, down 0.93%, also due to the increase in copper stocks.
LME copper, which started the third week of July at $9900, ended the week down 5.94% at $9290, under pressure from weak economic data from top consumer China and rising stocks in most global warehouses.
LME copper, which started the fourth week of July at $9,330, increased its losses as demand concerns in the largest consumer, China, continued, testing $8,900, its lowest level since March 28. Finding support from the losses in the dollar on the last day of the week, LME copper remained under pressure throughout the week, finishing the week down 2.34% at $9,073.
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3M LME copper traded between $9,485.5 and $10238 in June. It fell below $10,000 per metric ton for the first time in three weeks as weak demand in China fueled sales despite a weaker dollar in early June. It faced losses as a stronger dollar fueled sales, stalled demand growth in top consumer China and pressure from rising inventories, testing $9,485.5 on Wednesday 26.06, its lowest level since April 17. 3M LME copper ended June down 4.80% at $9,586.
Copper prices fell below $10,000 a metric ton for the first time in three weeks in the first week of June as weak demand in China accelerated selling despite a weak dollar. 3M LME copper ended the week down 3.18% at $9,748.50, weighed down by a stronger dollar and investors awaiting a key U.S. jobs report for clues on the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts.
3M LME copper fell to $9,680 for a 24th week as a weaker yuan reduced the purchasing power of Chinese buyers while high inventories and weak demand weighed on prices. 3M LME copper ended the second week of June up 0.25% at $9,772.50, although it remained under pressure from the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates only once this year and later than expected.
3M LME Copper fell to an eight week low of $9,551 at the beginning of the third week of June after data showed that industrial output in China, the largest copper consumer, was weaker than expected in May, while a stronger dollar also weighed on copper. The People's Bank of China said on Wednesday 19.06 that it would remain committed to its accommodative monetary stance and resolutely prevent the exchange rate from rising too much. LME copper recovered somewhat on the news flow, but finished the week down 0.95% at $9,680.
Copper prices suffered losses at the start of the fourth week of June as a stronger dollar triggered a sell off, demand growth stalled in top consumer China and pressure from rising inventories, testing $9,485.5, the lowest level since April 17. 3M LME copper finished the week down 0.97% at $9,586, despite the support of lower buying on the final day of the week.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $9.739-$11.104,5 in May. Although it started May cautiously, it tested the lowest level of the month at $9.739 on Thursday, 02.05.2024. LME copper, which rose after seeing this level, tested its all-time high level of $11.104.5 on Monday, 20.05.2024, with the support of China's real estate support measures and better-than-expected industrial data, and then faced losses under the pressure of weak demand in China and the Fed's hawkish minutes. 3M LME copper closed May with a 0.93% gain at $10.125.
Copper prices tested $10.208, the highest level since April 2022, but above the $10.000 level, as supply concerns highlighted by BHP Group's takeover bid for Anglo American and China's manufacturing PMI index reached 50.4 in April It faced losses due to the impact of profit sales and completed the 1st week of May with a loss of 0.46% at $9.914.
After the London Metal Exchange remained closed for Bank Holiday on May 6, LME copper rose as high as $10.118, boosted by renewed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year, promises of support from Chinese officials and increased risk appetite spreading through equity markets, China's improving trade. It completed the 2nd week of May at $10.040 with a 1.27% gain, supported by data and real estate support measures.
3M LME copper reached its highest level since April 2022 at $10.720 last week, as the inflation data announced in the USA increased expectations of an interest rate cut, the support of increasing Chinese demand and supply cuts, and strong Chinese industrial production data strengthened expectations for demand. tested it and completed the 3rd week of May at $10.715 with a 6.72% gain.
3M LME copper, after testing an all-time high of $11.104,5 on Monday (20.05.2024), supported by China's real estate support measures and better-than-expected industry data, ended the 4th week with of May a 3.56% loss at $10334, under the pressure of weak demand in China and the Fed's hawkish minutes.
The London Metal Exchange remained closed on 27 May due to Bank Holiday. 3M LME copper ended the last week od May down 2.56% at $10.069, remaining under pressure after Wednesday's Beige Book report showed economic activity continued to strengthen but inflation increased and Chinese manufacturing data disappointed.
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