MARKET COMMENTARY
During October, 3M LME copper traded within the range of $10,263 to $11,200. Prices started the month on a positive note, supported by ongoing supply concerns, despite low trading volumes due to China’s National Day holiday (October 1–8), when Chinese exchanges were closed.
At the beginning of the month, copper prices gained momentum after China announced a support plan aimed at revitalizing the non-ferrous metals sector and promoting the use of high-quality copper materials. Additional support came from a weaker U.S. dollar and rising global supply concerns following an accident at the Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest copper producers.
Entering the second week of October, trading activity picked up as Chinese markets reopened. Risk appetite improved amid persistent supply concerns, driving prices higher. On October 9, LME copper tested $11,000, the highest level since May 2024. However, gains were later capped after former U.S. President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions. This, combined with profit-taking and a stronger dollar, pushed prices down. By October 10, copper had erased earlier gains and closed the week 3.05% lower at $10,374.
In the third week, concerns over the U.S.–China trade conflict and its potential impact on demand for growth sensitive metals initially weighed on prices, which fell to around $10,430. However, renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar later supported the market, helping copper end the week 2.25% higher at $10,607.
Copper extended its recovery during the fourth week, supported by strong Chinese economic data and signs of easing U.S.–China tensions. The metal closed the week 3.21% higher at $10,974.
China’s third-quarter GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year, while September retail sales rose 3% and industrial production increased 6.5%, signaling a continued economic rebound despite weakness in the property sector.
Copper prices started the last week of October on a positive note, supported by signs of easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., as well as stronger global growth and demand expectations. Prices were further boosted by ongoing supply concerns following an accident at the Grasberg mine. As a result, copper rose above its previous record high of $11,104.5 per ton, reached on May 20, 2024, and tested the $11,200 level.However, comments from Fed officials following a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut created uncertainty about the Fed’s future policy path. In addition, weak manufacturing data from China fueled concerns about physical demand. Under the influence of these factors, copper prices ended the week down 0.51% at $10,891.5 per ton.
At month’s end, China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, below expectations of 49.6, marking its lowest level in six months and signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector.